Monday, June 8, 2009

Asset Allocation - personal reasoning

Earlier on (see Reloaded & back to basics), I shared that my current general Asset Allocation goal is an even split between Bonds, REITs and Stocks (ex REITs). My reasoning behind such an Asset Allocation goal are below - all constructive criticism or queries are welcomed, that's one of the ways for me to learn better & faster, thus, please feel free to do so.

33% Bonds, 33% REITs, 33% Stocks (exREITs) - 1% "main tikam" ;P
  1. Back to the basis of not having a crystal ball, these three Assets have different correlation to each other and the economy cycle. Yeah, they may not have a totally negative correlation
    - I noticed stocks & bonds falling together on the same days once a blue moon
    - I noticed stocks in REITs and nonREITs stocks falling and running up on the same days but not in similar percentages
  2. By aiming for a general portfolio balance of these, my aim is to have different players playing different roles - like football/soccer:
    - Forwards: Stocks (exREITs) to grow & help me score!
    - MidFielders: REITs to create chances (ie. money via dividends + smallish capital gains) for my attackers + help my defenders in times of crisis (cash flow + to keep ahead of inflation)
    - Defenders: Bonds for defence (cash flow + to keep with inflation)
    - Goalie: Emergency Buffer of 4+ months' average expenses (aiming for 12 months) to stop the necessity of robbing/benching any of my attackers, midfielders & defenders
  3. Why no Gold in there?
    That remaining 1% "main tikam" is for opportunities in Gold and other collectables.
    To me, gold is just another holder of value / valuation - like cash. I'd rather focus on Assets that GENERATES the value, not just hold the value. Any Gold bugs willing to share and educate me better?
  4. Why no "physical" Properties (can touch, can use, can rent out or flip) in there?
    There is a similar Asset class in there - REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust).
    The reason why I chosed REITs instead of Properties (houses, shops, factories) are:
    - illiquidity of Properties vs. REITs
    - lump sums required for Properties (unless limited partnerships are used) vs. REITs
    - hard to diversify due to lump sums required for Properties
    - no crystal ball to tell which new development will be hot if buying off-the-plan
    - buying sub-sale in areas that are hot is like buying a stock at the height of a bull-run
    - leverage is a double-edged sword
    - no matter how creative I get, I still haven't manage get a calculation that shows Properties' returns being better than REITs, given the above shortcomings
    - REITs are easier, IMHO, to value (although the books are "cooked" a bit) and ascertain value. The DY%, NAPS (Net Asset Per Share) vs current market price, D/E, ROE and even the category of REIT (commercial, industrial, etc.) is easily available.
    - I'm still trying to figure and learn how and why people get into Properties when there are REITs these days. Any coach or mentor to share experiences and points?
Please note that although my general Asset Allocation is as above, it does not mean that at any point of time it will be exactly thus. I still pick & choose value purchases (basic fundamentals) and a bit of speculative stocks. That's it - that's my "big view" approach and reasoning (well, most of it anyway) - Asset Allocaiton between Bonds, REITs and Stocks (exREITs).

What's my program or method/approach to achieve this? Heeheh later lah, I promise to share - because I noticed by sharing face-to-face or written, I become clearer in my thoughts and tend to follow-through. The secondary benefits of sharing is that others become more "financially free" possible + different perspectives' feedback helps me look into what I've missed. I've figured out that the more one knows, the more one knows what one still doesn't know :D

No comments:

Post a Comment